Friday, November 5, 2010

How Much Is My Confidence Worth?

I haven't been playing too much lately - I've had some stuff to do, plus I've been spending some time with my family (sheesh! Who do they think they are!). My mind has a tendency to wander at times like these, and it is doing so now.

I'm contemplating breaking a rule.

My BR rules (explained above) keep me limited to tournaments with $2 buyins or less. For SNGs this is not a issum - there is a $2 level perfect for me. However, MTTs present a problem - the buyins for the 90 man double-stacks tournaments (my comfort zone) jump from $1 to $3. My options are to find tournaments in the $2 zone, or take a shot at the $3 90 mans.

I've played a few $3 90 mans in the past without cashing, mainly due to bad luck/bad beats. The $1 90 mans (same doublestack format, except the $3's are turbo KO's) I did well in, cashing frequently and even getting 2nd in one - if not for a bad beat heads up, I might have taken 1st.

I think my game is good enough to succeed in the $3's. However, I'm really in no rush; it won't hurt me to play the $1's for a bit until my BR is big enough to move up. But will I be wasting my time by cashing in the $1's when I can be netting prizes three times as big? What if I end up winning a $1? Will I be happy for the twenty-something dollar payday, or will I be wondering if it could have been a ~$70 score instead?

Perhaps this is how poker players go broke - overestimating their skill due to overconfidence.

I guess I'll stay put for now. If I'm as good as I think I am, it shouldn't be too long until I get my BR high enough to be where I want to be.

2 comments:

Stenrick said...

I'd say play the $1 and for everyone of those that you top 3 in, you take a shot at a $3. That way you kill two birds with one stone.

Jae said...

Yeah I would say stick to your BRM guidelines that you have set but maybe take a stab at a $3.30 game like Stenrick suggested. I know it feels like a waste if you hit the $1.10 when it could have been a $3.30 but if your not properly BR for the higher buy-ins you can burn thru your BR "snap" like that...
jae