Digging Too Deep?

A very interesting thread has developed on the Full Tilt Poker forums here. I love ICM topics because it involves interesting math concepts (which plays right into my nerd wheelhouse), and the correct answer isn't always as intuitive as it seems. Some of the responders are supporting a call while others have supported a shove. After running the math, I'm solidly in the fold camp.

This is not the point of my post, though. Something in the thread really irked me. After I posted my ICM data and analysis, alew22 posted the following:

"think this is being looked into too deeply. I don't think there's many spots, if any, where i'm going to fold AKs in a 45man.....especially right at the bubble.
Snap call and feel really good......play to win, right?"

Is there such a thing as looking too deep if you haven't found the answer yet? Perhaps theories of the Earth being round were too deep... after all, the ground looks flat right?

I can't understand the thought process of someone who wants to stop thinking about a problem just because they've found the answer they like, as opposed to pressing on and finding the correct answer.

The MTT Mindset

Out of curiosity, I ran a search on myself at www.officialpokerrankings.com, just to see what type of results I'm getting in these 45s so far (if I were keeping results it wouldn't be necessary...*sigh*). Anyways, I found out some good news... I'm doing pretty well.

I've played in 14 of them, winning two and cashing in two others. My profit from the 45s alone is almost $39 - a whopping 153% ROI!!!

Granted, it's a small sample and I have been running amazingly hot lately (there is absolutely no way I can sustain this type of ROI in the long run), but on the flip side I have taken some tough knockouts. I feel it kinda evens itself out.

Checking out these results helped me learn something. I've only cashed in a small percentage, and yet I'm still wildly profitable so far. I started thinking about the math in these. If I were to only win 1 out of ten and not cash in any others, I would still squeak out a profit. Interesting, huh? That really highlights the importance of playing to win and not to min-cash.

Will My Spreadsheet Hold Together?

I've tried to tweak my spreadsheet to include just about everything I can think of involving my poker account, which includes BAP investments. I think I have it set up where I can track my playing profits and my BAP profits, both combined and seperate. It is very complicated though, and I'm sure I'll encounter some bugs along the way. It may even be a lot more work than the information is worth.

I'm waiting for one of my investments to return before starting my record keeping, although I just bought into another BAP this afternoon. This will give me a chance to test my BAP-tracking equations.

I hope it all works the way I want it to!

"Lucky Nerd"

Yup, that's me. Or at least I was called that after this particular hand, on the bubble of a $1 45-man:

Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds - 7 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1161593
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t27290 68.22 BBs
MP: t8040 20.10 BBs
CO: t16550 41.38 BBs
BTN: t3780 9.45 BBs
Hero (SB): t3295 8.24 BBs
BB: t3830 9.57 BBs
UTG: t4715 11.79 BBs

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is SB with 9d 9s
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t800, 3 folds, Hero raises to t3295 all in, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t2495

Flop: (t6990) 6h 4h 5h (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t6990) 9h (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t6990) 5s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t6990
UTG+1 shows Jc Jd (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
Hero shows 9d 9s (a full house, Nines full of Fives)
Hero wins t6990
_________________________________________________________

I got the last laugh, though. Here is me making a bubble boy out of the name caller:

Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds - 7 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1161594
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t22535 37.56 BBs
CO: t3760 6.27 BBs
BTN: t21995 36.66 BBs
SB: t3660 6.10 BBs
Hero (BB): t5640 9.40 BBs
UTG: t3030 5.05 BBs
UTG+1: t6880 11.47 BBs

Pre Flop: (t900) Hero is BB with Ks As
UTG raises to t3030 all in, 5 folds, Hero calls t2430

Flop: (t6360) Ac Kd 5d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t6360) 6h (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t6360) Kh (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t6360
Hero shows Ks As (a full house, Kings full of Aces)
UTG shows Qd Qs (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Hero wins t6360
________________________________________________________

Although, I am still inclined to believe he is correct, considering what happened once I got heads up in this one:

Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds - 2 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1161595
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t17900 8.95 BBs
Hero (BTN/SB): t49600 24.80 BBs

Pre Flop: (t3000) Hero is BTN/SB with 3h 9c
Hero raises to t49600 all in, BB calls t15900 all in

Flop: (t35800) 4h 2c 3d (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t35800) 6s (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t35800) 3c (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t35800
BB shows Td Ts (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Hero shows 3h 9c (three of a kind, Threes)
Hero wins t35800

Hey, if anyone deserves to get lucky like this, it's me!

Breaking Even

I've been playing a mix of things lately, mostly 45-mans and some sattys thrown in. I'm really starting to like the 45s. They are half the cost of the 9-man SNGs and they don't take as much run-good luck as the 90-man tourneys. The payout is nice for winning, and it doesn't seem to terribly hard to cash in it.

The past few weeks I've been able to run pretty much even, despite the fact that I've been catching some tough hits. I even got past the bubble in a 45-man in fairly decent place (3/6), but I also only had about 12BB left so I needed some luck... and of course didn't get it. Got crippled when I shoved A8 into BB's AK, then QJo < QTs when my opponent flushed out.

The rest of my BAP investments will be coming back soon, so I will be starting the spreadsheet soon. I think I can keep my new outlook going and worry about the fun more than the funds, and still keep records at the same time.