You Can't Handle the Proof!

There is a discussion about an SnG hand going on at the FTP message boards here. The hand in question is actually very interesting; the difference between play options is very thin, and the correct play is not as intuitive as you might think. I suggest you read through it if you have the time. I was surprised to find that my inital instinct (fold pre) also proved to be the most profitable play in this case.

What I find funny about this thread is the stubbornness of the posters who insist that they are right, even after they are proven wrong. They just slightly change their opinion... only to be proven wrong again. And they still don't give up!

"horseplyr" is particularly amusing. I've tangled a bit with him before on some issues. His MO is the following: he will not commit to any specific action in an HH analysis unless another poster who he has deemed "worthy" comments on the hand. He will then claim the comment as his own and defend it vehemently, despite all evidence he is wrong. Any evidence brought forth against "his" opinion is wrong, simply because that person does not have the experience "necessary experience" that the ones he has deemed worthy possess.

Basically, he's a sheep.

He's a follower who only knows what is good if someone tells him it is. He cannot think for himself; he only goes along with what the "best" players do. Read the thread for yourself. He goes from confused, to non-committal, to argumentative, to ABSOLUTELY sure I am wrong... all without offering any proof that he is correct. The only proof you will find in the thread is my math showing thaT a fold is best.

So, why does horseplyr not offer up any proof? Either:
a) he really doesn't understand why he's choosing his opinion (much like a sheep follows a shepherd and doesn't understand why)
or
b) there is no way to prove he is correct.

Or both.

I think I'm done posting in the thread; I've certainly made my point. However, I will continue to monitor the thread to see just how much more arguing goes on (and how foolish horseplyr makes himself look in the process).

No Mas

I've decided to call it quits with this whole "All or Nothing" bit. I'm still (barely) profitable, but why keep playing when I can do so much better (and have much more fun) playing tournaments? I can generate more profits playing tourneys without considering the bonus than I am getting now overall. I have until December to generate more bonus; I should grind out some more bonus cash between now and then by just doing my regular thing.

The whole thing is frustrating me, because it really should be working much better than it is. I just seem to be majorly unlucky. Last night I lost 3 coin flips with AK and ran into two AA's, but what really hurts is when I get it in with QQ against 77 and villain flops a 7. After all of that, I was only down 2 buyins. So, obviously even with a downswing that bad, on average I should be showing signifcant gains. I'm just not seeing it.

I cannot wait to get back to the games I am good at and actually ENJOY!!!

The Teacher Gets Schooled

After getting bored with the mindless repetition of my "All or Nothing" campaign (which, incidentally, is gaining some steam), I decided to switch gears last night and play something interesting. Unsure of how much time I had to play before I got sleepy, I entered a 90 man play money SnG. Boy are these fun to play.

Two easy triple ups paved the way to the final table for me, both involving AK hands. The first hand gives me a picture perfect flop of AAK. The second hand:

SB: t18495 308.25 BBs
BB: t15875 264.58 BBs
Hero (UTG): t4735 78.92 BBs
UTG+1: t9655 160.92 BBs
UTG+2: t21245 354.08 BBs
MP1: t1115 18.58 BBs
MP2: t5900 98.33 BBs
CO: t2220 37 BBs
BTN: t2545 42.42 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is UTG with Ac Kd
Hero raises to t200, UTG+1 calls t200, UTG+2 calls t200, 2 folds, CO raises to t2220 all in, 1 fold, SB calls t2190, 1 fold, Hero raises to t4735 all in, UTG+1 calls t4535, UTG+2 calls t4535, SB calls t2515

Flop: (t21220) Ad Kc 9c (5 players - 2 are all in)
SB bets t13760 all in, UTG+1 calls t4920 all in, UTG+2 folds

Turn: (t31060) 4s (4 players - 4 are all in)

River: (t31060) 9h (4 players - 4 are all in)

Final Pot: t31060
SB shows 4d Ks (two pair, Kings and Nines)
Hero shows Ac Kd (two pair, Aces and Kings)
UTG+1 shows Kh 4h (two pair, Kings and Nines)
CO shows As 8c (two pair, Aces and Nines)
SB wins t4920
UTG+1 wins t4920
Hero wins t10060
Hero wins t11160


I barely had to play another hand until we got to 6-handed at the FT.
The big stack at the FT was a major moron, often shoving his entire 30k-ish stack into a pot of 600 after the flop. Of course, he was getting good results, knocking out quite a few of the players until we got down to 3-handed play.

I was in third place, the moron in first with stacks ~ 75k/40k/20k. The moron is still shoving his entire stack, now often pre. The second place player is now lecturing him on how stupid this is, and how he should "stop being so dumb." Am I hearing this right? He wants his opponent to play better?

It bothers me when people can only play poker when their opponents only act a certain way, the way they have deemed "correct." Is there no room for adjustment in your game? Can you only succeed if your opponent plays proper, odds-driven poker? Or are you able to capitalize on your opponent's mistakes even if you don't fully understand them?

Mostly out of frustration, the lecturer was bounced and I was heads up with the moron. Adjusting my gameplay, I was able to catch a double up and work until stacks were just about even. This one would have turned the tables in my direction, but sometimes the morons just get lucky:

Hero (BB): t57155 142.89 BBs
BTN/SB: t77845 194.61 BBs

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BB with Ac 9c
BTN/SB raises to t77845 all in, Hero calls t56755 all in

Flop: (t114310) 8c 6h 9d

Turn: (t114310) Qd

River: (t114310) 5h

Final Pot: t114310
Hero shows Ac 9c (a pair of Nines)
BTN/SB shows Ad 7s (a straight, Nine high)
BTN/SB wins t114310

I'm hoping this bonus thing is over soon. I really miss playing SnG's and tournaments! Maybe I'll throw a few in this week to remind myself of the flavor.

Me Likey

More of these, please!!!

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/961666
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $1.78
UTG+2: $1.81
MP1: $1.53
MP2: $2.16
CO: $6.10
BTN: $2.52
Hero (SB): $1.69
BB: $2.00
UTG: $2.37

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Kh Ks
UTG raises to $0.17, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.53 all in, MP2 raises to $2.16 all in, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.67 all in, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.99

Flop: ($7.59) Qc 4d 7d

Turn: ($7.59) 2h

River: ($7.59) 6d

Final Pot: $7.59
MP1 shows 9h 9c (a pair of Nines)
MP2 shows Qs Js (a pair of Queens)
Hero shows Kh Ks (a pair of Kings)
UTG shows Ah Kd (Ace King high)
MP2 wins $0.88
Hero wins $0.45
Hero wins $5.76
(Rake: $0.50)

Knowing my luck, I was expecting one of them to have AA. But it worked out!

All or Nothing

I'm trying out something nutty.

I recently got rakeback and a deposit bonus for my account. In order to grind the bonus, I've come up with a wacky way to play at 5nl Rush. Here are my rules:

1) I buy in for only 40bbs, and I do not top up.
2) Any premium hand (AA, KK, QQ, AK) I automatically shove.
3) Any speculative hand (PPs, SCs) I limp or call a small raise if odds allow.
4) Quick fold anything else

An addition to #3.... 3a if you will:
3a) If I hit my speculative hand big, I shove.

Now, I would never play like this for real. I find that this style is not very profitable without counting the bonus I've been generating. But with the bonus, I'm breaking even or often making a small profit... and I've gotten unlucky way more often than not.

It seems like I'd be losing tons of value by shoving 40bbs with AA. I am losing value, but not as much as you think. The funny thing is, people seem to call my shoves VERY light (I've seen KQ, A7, and 66 among other hands). It's as if the shove looks as stupid as it is, so they think I must have no clue what I'm doing. I'm letting them level themselves into a call.

I've had some vicious suckouts - one that comes to mind was AA vs. T9, lost to a straight on the river - but I double up enough to make up for losses and beat the rake... with the help of the bonus, of course. When I'm done with the bonus, I'm headed back to my bread & butter SNGs.

But, when the next Fast 50 shows up, I know what I'm doing. ;)

(Stay tuned for some HH's of some of my "All or Nothing" hands!)

Wow, it's been a while since I posted here. I really should start posting more as part of my attempt to get a little more serious with my poker game. I will be having more time at home to focus on playing - the kids will be going to summer programs for two days a week during the day - so I'm really going to work hard on developing my game.

I'm working on another BAP proposal. This one involves the Step tournaments on Full Tilt. I've played in step tournaments on UltimateBet and did well in them (reached step 7 of 10 in a WSOP challenge), so I'm familiar with the format. This time, instead of working up the ladder, I plan on grinding and then converting for cash value when the system allows me to. Also, I hope to have access to rakeback by that time, which will help me generate a small bit of extra revenue.

More details to come.

My First BAP

In order to solve the problem of being underrolled for 5nl, I decided on a whim to run a Buy-A-Piece (BAP) on Full Tilt's message boards. Basically, a bunch of people give me money to play poker with, and I get a small share of the profits that I make off of it. It's going really well so far. I've already made over $20 in just 3 days at 5nl Rush, about $10 of which comes back to me.

The swing of variance is definitely coming back to me. I've gotten AA and KK probably about 20 times since the BAP began, and I've been getting paid by them as well. I'm hitting flops, hitting draws, getting people to fold to my light 3-bets and bluff c-bets... it all seems to be working. Either I'm on a big heater, or 5nl is a much better fit for me than 2nl.

Hopefully I can keep this up. The BAP runs through the entire month.